California support for same-sex marriage still below 50 percent, says new report

Support for same-sex marriage among Californians has not yet reached the 50 percent mark, according to a new Field Poll analysis released Wednesday.

According to the California Opinion Index analysis, which examines the changes in voter attitudes on social and other issues over the course of previous Field Polls, support for same-sex marriage hovers at 49 percent between 2006-2009. That figure represents an 18-point gain over the 31 percent who favored marriage equality between 1975-1977, the analysis states.

According to the analysis, currently 44 percent of voters oppose same-sex marriage. Only 7 percent of those in previous surveys had no opinion.

The analysis comes just as marriage equality advocates throughout the state prepare to make a decision about whether to return to the ballot in 2010 in an effort to repeal Proposition 8, the constitutional amendment passed last November that eliminated same-sex marriage in California.

At a lively statewide leadership summit in late July, no consensus was reached on when to return to the ballot. Many grassroots organizations favor a 2010 repeal effort, while LGBT nonprofit executives and many LGBT minority groups favor waiting until 2012 or later. A nonbinding straw poll taken at the summit was in favor of a 2010 effort, but not everyone participated and votes that were received online were not counted.

Equality California is expected to announce its recommendation about the timing of a repeal effort as soon as next week. The statewide LGBT lobbying organization has been consulting with political experts, conducting field work, and talking to major donors about the issue. EQCA also has participated in the various statewide meetings. An informal survey this spring of EQCA members found a majority favor a 2010 repeal effort. But since that time, there has been wide discussion in the LGBT community about whether such an undertaking would be successful. The economic downturn has raised questions about whether sufficient campaign funds could be raised, and some LGBT community members have expressed concern that a winning strategic plan has not yet emerged.

More work left to doIn June, Marriage Equality USA released its analysis of a May poll conducted for same-sex marriage supporters that showed advocates would need to get nearly 1,000 new supporters a day in order to win a ballot measure next year.

That poll was commissioned by Polling 4 Equality, a broad coalition of large and small state groups (including the Courage Campaign, EQCA, and MEUSA), and conducted May 9-13 by David Binder of David Binder Research and Amy Simon, a partner at Goodwin Simon Victoria Research. Overall, the poll showed that California is split down the middle when it comes to same-sex marriage, with 47 percent in favor and 48 opposed.

Pamela Brown, policy director for MEUSA, said in an e-mail Wednesday that the new Field Poll analysis shows progress has been made.

"All these polls show we have come a long way and we are almost there," Brown said, referring to the recent voter surveys and this week’s Field analysis. "But to win we need to connect with people who aren’t yet with us, who have some conflict or confusion on why marriage equality matters."

Geoff Kors, executive director of EQCA, said that the new poll analysis "demonstrates not only that there has been tremendous movement in California on this issue over the past few decades as more and more people come out, but that the trend is moving solidly toward majority support for marriage equality among registered voters."

But Kors cautioned, "In order to win a ballot measure to restore marriage equality, we must secure majority support not just among registered voters, which is what the Field Poll measured, but rather among likely voters for a specific election."

Kors said that unlike the Prop 8 and Proposition 22 battles, when anti-same-sex marriage proponents put the measures on the ballot, "our side will get to determine when we go back to the voters."

"We must be strategic in selecting the election that gives us the best opportunity to prevail," Kors added.Yes on Equality, which has drafted some possible ballot language for a repeal, was encouraged by the new analysis.

"There is momentum and growing support in California and around the nation for marriage equality and an urgent need within the LGBT community in this state to win back our civil rights sooner, rather than later," Yes on Equality founder Chaz Lowe said in a statement Wednesday.

Lowe also said that the poll analysis "doesn’t even take into account some of the provisions we will be including in our ballot language, which we believe will increase our numbers."Changes in BallotsIt is widely expected that any ballot measure will include language specifically stating that churches do not have to perform same-sex marriage. Such language polled well in the Binder-Simon survey in May, bringing support for same-sex marriage above the 50 percent mark.

Rick Jacobs, founder and chair of the Courage Campaign, said that his group continues its work "to build the movement to change the electorate so that we can win back equality in California and win nationally."

Jacobs said that last weekend in East Los Angeles, 279 activists, including monolingual Spanish speakers, attended a two-day "Camp Courage" training.

"This one was the best yet," Jacobs said of the trainings, which have taken place across the state in the last several months. "The room looked and felt like California."

In spite of all the grassroots efforts, some donors remain uncertain about a repeal effort next year. A story last week in the New York Times stated "the timing of another campaign has ... been questioned by several of the movement’s big donors."

EQCA marriage director Marc Solomon told the Bay Area Reporter last week that people he has spoken with are "extremely skeptical to outright hostile to a 2010 ballot campaign."

Grassroots organizers such as Love Honor Cherish, however, are moving forward with a plan for 2010; a meeting will be held in Los Angeles Sunday with numerous groups that favor a campaign next year.

The new digest summarizing the Field Poll notes that Californians’ greater acceptance of same-sex marriage over the past 30 years "has come entirely from the ranks of registered Democrats and nonpartisans rather than Republicans."

"Democratic voter views about allowing same-sex marriage have shifted from greater than two to one in opposition in 1977 to greater than two to one in support this year," the poll analysis states. "Similarly, while a five to three majority of nonpartisans opposed allowing same-sex couples to marry in 1977, they are now in support by a five to three margin."

But the analysis suggests there has been no movement among Republicans.

"Republicans, on the other hand, have not changed their views on the issue, and if anything, are now more opposed than they were 30 years ago," the analysis states.

Charles Moran, vice president of Log Cabin Republicans’ California chapter, said that he wasn’t necessarily surprised by the analysis of Republicans. He said that he believes many disaffected Republicans who are more moderate on social issues have left the party and are now independent voters.

"Not all these independents come from Republicans, some come from Democrats," he added.

Moran said that Log Cabin has not taken a position on the 2010 versus 2012 issue; it’s members are split like the wider LGBT community."We are making a lot of headway in California," he added. "We have so much energy and enthusiasm."